Right Steps & Poui Trees


Covid Reflections: Time for one of Dr Bisasor-McKenzie or Dr Webster-Kerr’s Covid-19 Updates

I’ve seen or heard pieces of information in the media about where we now are in the 3rd wave. For example, last week in an interview on Nationwide News Network, National Epidemiologist Dr Karen Webster-Kerr spoke about the expectation that the peak of this wave would occur in 2 weeks’ time and she gave projections for deaths in the coming weeks. During a discussion on Nationwide on Wednesday, Prof Winston Davidson mentioned that the reproductive number was now at 1.1. (For full disclosure, I was one of the other participants in the discussion.) In today’s Gleaner there is an article that refers to information said to have been obtained from Dr Webster-Kerr and the Ministry of Health and Wellness (MOHW):

“A hair-raising 250 COVID-19 deaths occurred in August, with another 60 fatalities still under investigation, said Dr Karen Webster-Kerr, national epidemiologist. Scores of other deaths reported in August occurred months earlier.

August 26 was the deadliest day for the month, with 20 persons succumbing to the COVID-19.

However, the 296 COVID-19-related deaths for March outstripped August’s.

Data from the Ministry of Health and Wellness obtained by The Gleaner showed that another 20 deaths in March are under investigation.

With the country recording a total of 69,054 COVID-19 cases as at September 2 and a total of 1,568 deaths as a result of the disease, the ministry is reporting that the overall (2020 to 2021) COVID-19 case death rate is 2.3 per cent.

The death rate in August (1.6 per cent) plunged only because infections soared almost fivefold, month-on-month, to more than 15,300.”

At the Office of the Prime Minister’s (OPM) press briefing on Wednesday (1-9-21), Prime Minister Holness included 3 of the slides that are normally included in the MOHW PowerPoint updates and he commented on them, something which he has done before, though moreso in Parliament. Although both the Chief Medical Officer (CMO) Dr Jacquiline Bisasor-McKenzie and Dr Webster-Kerr were present at the press briefing, neither spoke from the podium or gave the ususal update.

(Perhaps this was in keeping with the brief nature of the press briefing…only 3 slides, and only two questions allowed in the Q&A.)

The last of these MOHW Covid-19 updates that I can find is the one given at the OPM press briefing on August 19, 2021, by Dr Bisasor-McKenzie.

That is now more than two weeks ago, two weeks in which we have moved towards the peak of the 3rd wave. In that time there have been dramatic increases in the number of cases, the number of hospitalizations, the number of deaths. But we are being told that with the reproductive rate reducing and the positivity rate down from the high of 54%, there may be glimmerings of hope. This is exactly the time at which we need a full update from the CMO or the National Epidemiologist. To place us now in the context of indicators that the MOHW has used for so long.

Why haven’t we had one of these updates, at one of the times when we perhaps need it most, since the start of the pandemic?

We have been getting these periodically. They have been a useful way of tracking changes. Whatever problems some may have with aspects of the data, this is a way of following what the MOHW says the position is, what they are using to base decisions on, what the government is basing decisions on.

There was no MOHW Covid Conversation yesterday; Thursday is the ususal day for them if they are being held. No presentation at the OPM press briefing on Wednesday. No presentation at Parliament’s Joint Select Committee dealing with Covid-related matters on Tuesday; Parliament is on summer break. These are the three places that the public usually gains access to these updates. A presentation with commentary by Dr Bisasor-McKenzie or Dr Webster-Kerr would be best. But if that’s not going to happen, post the PowerPoint online on the MOHW website. In fact, press briefing or no press briefing, Covid Conversation or no Covid Conversation, Joint Select Committee or no Joint Select Committee, post it at regular intervals on the MOHW website.

During a crisis such as this pandemic, information to the public is crucial. With this Delta-variant-fueled 3rd wave, with our public hospitals not offering anything but emergency services, with bed capacity overwhelmed, with dangerous oxygen shortages, we are in a crisis within the crisis. We need more information, not less.


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Covid Reflections: Delta Variant Confirmed & Deaths Increase Sharply in August

We are in our third wave of Covid-19 in Jamaica.

MOHW slide – OPM press briefing 19-8-21

The Delta variant, which for some time has been assumed to be in Jamaica, has now been confirmed to be here.

The number of new cases and hospitalisations have been been rising steadily.

In the third week of August, new cases were over 500 per day on all days but one, the positivity rate was over 40% on 5 days of the week and hospitalisations had gone from 204 on August 1 to 573 on August 21.

At a press conference called by Prime Minister Holness last Thursday (August 19, 2021) to announce changes to the Covid-19 measures, Chief Medical Officer Dr Bisasor-McKenzie gave a presentation, which has been variously called sobering, alarming, frightening. Covid-19 indicators are all going in the wrong direction, with our vaccination levels too low to have any significant collective impact on the effects of this wave.

MOHW slide – OPM press briefing 19-8-21

The slide below from her presentation set out some sobering, alarming, frightening projections for increases in confirmed cases and deaths, if the reproductive rate remained at 1.4, and for daily hospital admissions, if the reproductive rate remained at 1.3.

MOHW slide – OPM press briefing 19-8-2021

The deaths reported by the Ministry of Health and Wellness (MOHW) during August have been going up at a steadily increasing rate. For the first week, 26 deaths were reported, 78 for the second week and 88 for the third. The totals for weeks 2 and 3 are already above the weekly reported deaths seen during the height of the 2nd wave in March this year. And we are not yet at the peak of the current wave….

The parishes with the highest reported deaths so far in August are Kingston & St Andrew (KSA) and Westmoreland, with 47 and 28 respectively.

(I want to make clear that I describe the numbers as REPORTED deaths because it is often not possible to tell from the Clinical Management Summaries the day on which deaths actually occurred.)

Compiled from MOHW daily Clinical Management Summaries

I have included a map of Jamaica showing the parishes, for ease of reference.

Map of Jamaica showing parishes

The report issued today, with yesterday’s data (Sunday, August 23, 2021) saw a record number of new cases being confirmed – 879, the highest single day total since the start of the pandemic. (The highest number prior to this was 878, recorded on March 7, 2021, during Jamaica’s 2nd wave.) Hospitalisation have reached 607 and 14 additional deaths were reported.

The days of lockdown announced will hopefully help to bring the numbers down. But they will not affect the deaths already likely to result from the high numbers of infections in the past few weeks. The increase in deaths typically lags behind the rise in cases by a few weeks. As Prof Peter Figueroa said in an interview on Nationwide News Network last Friday :

“We have a very serious surge of COVID cases, a lot of persons in hospital. The hospitals are close to being overwhelmed with the number of persons being admitted with COVID. This surge is looking worse than the last surge  that we had that peaked in March of this year.”

Prof Peter Figueroa, Nationwide News Network interview, 20-8-2021

Our hospitals and medical personnel are being overwhelmed. And as Prof Figueroa and other medical and public health professionals have said…it is going to get worse before it gets better. Actions taken now, by the government and the people, can help to reduce further infections and further deaths. But downplaying what’s happening, wishing it weren’t so or ignoring the science will not.


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Disaster Risk Management Orders 6 – 8, dated May 5, 2021 – July 27, 2021

For a number of months now I have been unable to keep up with posting the Disaster Risk Management Orders in a timely manner and am no longer going to try to do so. I will try to post them all for archival purposes, so that they are available here in the future if government websites eventually remove them, which has happened with other documents in the past.

If you don’t find the most recent Orders on my blog, I recommend checking two government sites, which are the two that post them most reliably nowadays – the Office of the Prime Minister & the Ministry of Justice‘s websites. The Office of the Prime Minister’s list is incomplete, however, not having some of the earliest orders. The Ministry of Justice’s list seems to be complete at this time.

Neither site has yet posted the current Order, which would contain the new measures announced by PM Holness on Monday of this week.

Below are links to Orders 6, 7 and 8 and their amendments. (One thing I need to follow up on is the absence of a first amendment to Order No. 6, as there is a second amendment.)

Disaster Risk Management (Enforcement Measures) (No. 6) Order, 2021- May 5, 2021

Disaster Risk Management (Enforcement Measures) (No. 6) (Amendment) (No. 2) Order 2021 – May 25, 2021

Disaster Risk Management (Enforcement Measures) (No. 7) Order, 2021 – June 3 2021

Disaster Risk Management (Enforcement Measures) (No. 7) (Amendment) Order, 2021 – June 17, 2021

Disaster Risk Management (Enforcement Measures) (No. 7) (Amendment) (No. 2) Order, 2021 – June 24, 2021

Disaster Risk Management (Enforcement Measures) (No. 8) Order 2021 – July 1 2021

Disaster Risk Management (Enforcement Measures) (No. 8) (Amendment) Order 2021 – July 27 2021

Link to PBCJ recording of Office of the Prime Minister’s media briefing held on August 9, 2021, at which changes to the Disaster Risk Management measures were announced.